Ramalan Pasaran

Ikuti perkembangan maklumat pasaran penting berdasarkan ramalan pasaran Pacific Union. Ramalan Pasaran kami adalah kaedah terbaik untuk membuat persiapan untuk hari perdagangan yang akan datang

US President Joe Biden had his first conversation with Chinese leader Xi…

US President Joe Biden had his first conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since the inauguration

20210212
Share

Market Focus

US equities oscillated throughout the NA trading session, but tech stocks were still outperforming other sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.43%, while the S&P Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index were little moved.

US President Joe Biden had his first conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since inauguration. Biden expressed his concern about China’s “coercive and unfair economic practices” as well as human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region.

US initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 793,000 in the week ended Feb.6 but still failed to beat economists’ forecast of 757,000. While the labor market recovery remains bumpy, job growth should improve as the number of COVID-19 cases decline, business reopens, and vaccinations accelerate.

The Fed chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech on Wednesday, he called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers. There remains a long way from a full recovery, it will require a more supportive monetary policy to achieve and sustain full employment. More importantly, Powell stated that the Fed will not tighten policy until seeing a better state in the labor market. He also downplayed inflation, prompting some selling pressure on the US greenback and treasury yield.

Some follow up on Donald Trump’s second impeachment. Prospects grew that the impeachment may end as soon as Saturday. The House managers plan to begin presenting their case on Friday. Assuming neither side seeks to call witnesses, the trial would end with up to four hours of questions from senators, other possible motions, and a vote on the outcome.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Eurodollar edged higher against the US dollar amid uneven development in the Forex space. Dovish comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell weighed on the dollar as he indicated that the rate is here to stay until employment and inflation are restored to optimal levels.

Cable pulled back 0.15% on Thursday as the pair struggled to find strong footing around the key resistance level. However, fundamentals on the Pound are poised to lead price to higher ground. UK’s vaccination rollouts have reached nearly 20% of the population, far outpacing its main rival the US, and the EU.

Early movement in the Gold market was fairly muted, then the price took a hit during the mid-US trading session, closed the day at around $1825. The bears are in an attempt to erase all of the early week’s gain. Rising 10-year yield continues to divert demand from the safe-haven metal, up 2.4 bps on Thursday.

Aussie gained 0.37% after Australian Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy said the “We are quite confident now that the recovery is locked in.” Price was once hit 0.7772, the highest we have seen in three weeks. On the other hand, Kiwi’s rally was relatively dismal, up 0.13%.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The story of the Eurodollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday besides adding confirmations to our previous theory. The pair has managed to reclaim 1.206 support and is clinging to the short term descending trendline. The yellow upward trendline has previously proven itself to be worthy of defending, now the bulls are in charge of another attack. However, there have been several layers of defense line set up the bears, the first being the blue descending trendline, next to horizontal resistance of 1.2173, then the January’s high of 1.2333. The more rejections we see upon confronting the blue downward trendline, the higher the likelihood of a retreat. On the south, near support sits around 1.206, followed by 1.193.

Resistance: 1.2173, 1.2333

Support: 1.206, 1.193

GBPUSD (Weekly Chart)

The cable is well placed in an upward trending tunnel since last April and is currently meeting some stubborn resistance around 1.38. It came on top of the 1.38 hurdle from March 2018, but we still have one more trading day to confirm whether if it can overcome this hurdle. It is hardly any surprises to see the Pound clinging to the Bollinger upper band in the longer term since it was severely subdued from Brexit shock. However, a retreat from here seems plausible since the weekly RSI figure is one step away from overheating, currently hovers around 66.5.

Resistance: 1.416, 1.4625

Support: 1.38, 1.338, 1.2769

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold preciously formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart, which usually points to a bearish trend. Price seems to be stuck within the previous support band between $1838 and $1823. Moreover, it failed to stand on top of the previous neckline, which speculators usually perceive as a strong sell signal. That being said, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing breakthrough from either side of the support band since we cannot completely rule out a sudden strengthening of the bulls. In other words, recent dollar weakness could prompt demand for the precious metal. MACD on the daily chart is still undergoing a bullish reversal.

Resistance: 1839, 1872, 1930

Support: 1823, 1765, 1691

20210212
Share
Pack Up

The Senate approved to proceed with former President Donald Trumps’ second impeachment…

The Senate approved to proceed with former President Donald Trumps’ second impeachment trial

20210211
Share

Market Focus

US equities declined as technology stocks were leading the retreat, the Nasdaq Index dipped 0.52%. Twitter Inc. and Lyft Inc. turned up again the tide, Twitter Inc. surged after reporting a jump in revenue, meanwhile, Lyft Inc. co-founder said the company will turn a quarterly profit this year.

The Senate approved to proceed with former President Donald Trumps’ second impeachment trial. Trump was impeached by the House on a single article accusing him of incitement of an insurrection by provoking the mob that stormed the US Capitol last month.

Across the Atlantic, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to announce an extension of lockdown until March 14 amid new virus strain emergence. The current restriction is set to expire on Feb.14, but some fears the new contagious variants of coronavirus could hamper the already slow vaccination rollouts. The longer vaccination rollouts take, the more prolonged the economic damage of lockdowns are expected to be. Germany’s economy contracted by 5% in 2020, according to full-year GDP data released in January.

BoC Deputy Governor Time Lane called the soaring price in cryptocurrency as purely speculative mania and said such assets don’t have the qualities to become the money of the future. He opposes Tesla’s plan to use Bitcoin as a method of payment in the future, said costly verification methods and unstable purchasing power makes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin a “flawed” method of payment.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Euro-dollar pared half of its gain, closed the day up 0.1% after ECB President Christine Lagarde said it will be a while before the central bank needs to deal with unwanted inflation, and that the euro region needs fiscal support at least through the end of the year. Weak US inflation figure also helped non-US currencies to climb on Wednesday, January core inflation fell 0.1% from the previous month. US 10-year treasury yield also dropped 2.6bps to 1.135% after having topped 2% on Monday. Gold once hit $1855, the highest price in two weeks, but failed to capitalize its gain, closed the day around $1843.

Traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc performed differently against the US greenback, Yen dipped 0.07% while Franc gained 0.27%. BoJ officials are considering ways to communicate that the bank can cut its interest rate further in the negative territory if needed while considering the side effect of such a move.

Cable climbed to the highest level since April 2018, rallied 0.23% on Wednesday. The British Sterling was underpinned by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech, who said it’s not in the UK’s interest to dramatically ease banking rules following Brexit.

The antipodean pairs underperformed in the G-10 space; the Aussie dollar dropped 0.14% whilst Kiwi retreated 0.4%. The decline is probably attributed to thin liquidity ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, rather than a fundamental one.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Eurodollar has managed to reclaim 1.206 support and is currently kissing the short term descending trendline. The yellow upward trendline has previously proven itself to be worthy of defending, now the bulls are in charge of another attack. However, there have been several layers of defense line set up the bears, the first being the blue descending trendline, next to horizontal resistance of 1.2173, then the January’s high of 1.2333. On the south, near support sits around 1.206, followed by 1.193. MACD on the daily chart is printing a bullish reversal picture. However, it would be prudent to wait for a clear breakout as neither side dominates the other.

Resistance: 1.2173, 1.2333

Support: 1.206, 1.193

GBPUSD (Weekly Chart)

The cable is well placed in an upward trending tunnel since last April, this pair continues to gain traction as BoE Bailey lifted concerns of the negative interest rate. It came on top of the 1.38 hurdle from March 2018, but we still have two more trading days to confirm whether if it can firmly stand above this level. It is hardly any surprises to see the Pound clinging to the Bollinger upper band in the longer term since it was severely subdued from Brexit shock. However, a retreat from here seems plausible since the weekly RSI figure is one step away from overheating, currently hovers around 67.

Resistance: 1.416, 1.4625

Support: 1.38, 1.338, 1.2769

AUDUSD (Daily Chart)

The Aussie dollar was unable to complete the breakout of the descending trendline given the lack of trading volume ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Nonetheless, the bulls are here to stay amid a resurgence of the reflation narrative, which should bolster commodity-linked Aussie and Kiwi throughout 2021. This pair spent the last month consolidating after a huge ramp-up in late 2020, and now investors are waiting for a fresh impetus to move forward. That being said, approval on Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package should give risky currencies a big boost. But investors should always keep an eye on the US yield curve since rising yields will hinder non-US currencies’ strength. MACD on the daily chart is undergoing a bullish reversal.

Resistance: 0.78, 0.7982

Support: 0.758, 0.7414

20210211
Share
Pack Up

Brent oil hovered around $60 a barrel on signs the global market…

Brent oil hovered around $60 a barrel on signs the global market is tightening, and demand is improving

20210210
Share

Market Focus

US stocks halted a six-day winning streak as investors debated whether commitments by the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration to let the economy run hot will spark destabilizing inflation. The S&P 500 Index edged lower from an all-time high after a 5.4% surge this month fueled by signs the Biden administration intends to pass a sizable aid bill while the central bank promises to keep rates pinned near zero. The Nas100 eked out again, while small caps notched the longest rally since Dec 2019. Treasuries advanced and the dollar fell for a third straight session.

Stretched valuations are giving investors pause as they cheer advancing vaccination efforts, rising stimulus prospects, and a slowdown in coronavirus infections across the globe. With inflation expectations near the highest since 2013, questions have also begun to be raised about when the so-called reflation trade in bonds could start to threaten equities.

According to Saira Malik, Nuveen head of global equities, “We are getting to the point where we have to start worrying about the risk of how we pull back on that stimulus, will it cause the economy to overheat, are these valuations becoming too expensive. That is something we are going to be grappling with as the year goes on.”

Elsewhere, Brent oil hovered around $60 a barrel on signs the global market is tightening, and demand is improving. Bitcoin pared an earlier jump to a record after Tesla Inc. bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

GBPUSD advances towards 1.3800, sitting at the highest levels since April 2018 ahead of the London open. The Cable rises as broad US dollar weakness supersedes uncertainty over Brexit and the UK Covid vaccine news.

Retreating US Treasury yields weigh on the American currency. The macroeconomic calendar will remain scarce, having no impact on currencies. USDJPY is in a corrective decline, the bearish trend could gain momentum.

The USDCAD pair climbed to a daily high of 1.2766 in the early trading hours of the American session but reversed its course amid broad selling pressure surrounding the greenback.

DXY accelerates the downside and navigates multi-day lows in the 90.50 zones on turnaround Tuesday. WTI has reversed an earlier decline to as low as the $57.25 per barrel to trade back above the $58.00 level and is back in the green, setting the crude oil contract up for the seventh day of successive gains.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Four-hour Chart)

The EURUSD extends its Monday gains and posts another bullish day on Tuesday, at the moment of writing, the Fiber pair is flirting with the 1.2120 resistance. Given that no specific theme or story is affecting the EUR on the day, the major driver that boosted the EURUSD is the weakening USD. Technically speaking, as the 15-Day SMAVG is staging a golden cross with the 60-Day SMAVG, it is reasonable to assume that the EURUSD is going to extend its bullish momentum. This bullish trend is also supported by the MACD histogram. Nevertheless, given that the RSI has now reached the overbought region, a downward correction might prevent the pair from further advancing.

Resistance: 1.2120, 1.2145, 1.2163

Support: 1.2078, 1.2060, 1.2017

AUDUSD (Four-hour Chart)

The Aussie is posting its three consecutive day win on Tuesday but is currently struggling to extend above the 0.7736 resistance zone. The board-based greenback weakness drives Aussie’s Tuesday gains. Given that the Australia Business Confidence Index rose to 10 from 4 and that the NAB’s capacity utilization rose to 81.0% in January, those positive numbers also gave some lift for the pair’s recent rise. From a technical perspective, the Aussie’s surge is supported by the 15-Day SMAVG and MACD histogram. However, with the 69 RSI, likely, the Aussie might not find acceptance above the most immediate resistance at 0.7736. A break above the 0.7736 zones could open the door for an acceleration of the recent appreciation.

Resistance: 0.7736, 0.7766, 0.7798

Support: 0.7703, 0.7678, 0.7642

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

The gold traders experienced a roller-coaster type of day on Tuesday. After breaking key resistance levels at $1840 in the later European session, the yellow metal has now retreated to $1837. Despite the broad-based USD weakness, the failure to find a further acceptance above the $1846 zone still weighed down on the precious metal extensively. The market’s undecisive sentiment on the greenback would continue to play a significant part in XAUUSD’s price action. From a technical perspective, the gold is still under bearish pressure. However, the 50s RSI is suggesting that the pair still has some room to extend Tuesday’s positive traction. On the upside, the yellow metal must first move above $1846 to reclaim its $1850 territory. On the flip side, the most immediate cushion for the pair can be found at $1829 and $1818.

Resistance: 1846, 1856, 1864

Support: 1829, 1818

20210210
Share
Pack Up

More Than Trading