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Market Focus

US stock advanced on Monday amid risk-on market sentiment, closing at an all-time high for the 69th time this year and rising for a fourth day as the “ Santa Claus rally” kicked off. The S&P 500 index has averaged a gain of 1.3% over the seven-day Christmas holidays since 1969. Investors are now evaluating prospects for a year-end rally despite worries that the Omicron variant remains, as 3,000 plus flights were cancelled on the Christmas weekend due to quarantine measures and a shortage of staff. Therefore, the spread of the Omicron variant acted as a headwind for travel stocks, which underperformed on Monday. On top of that, Asian stocks slipped despite China’s central bank pledging greater economic support over the weekend. In contrast, other central banks like the Fed are fighting inflation by cutting monetary stimulus.

The benchmarks, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all rose on Monday as the Santa Claus rally continued with thin trading and an improved market mood. Mega cap stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Meta contributed the most to the stock gains. S&P 500 was up 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced with a 1.0% gain for the day. All eleven sectors stayed in positive territory as the energy and information technology sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 2.24% and 2.18% respectively. The Nasdaq 100 climbed the most with a 1.6% gain on Monday as the MSCI World index rose 0.9%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar edged lower on Monday, staying in negative territory amid upbeat market sentiment around the equity markets. The DXY index reached a daily top in the late European session, then pulled back to near 96.08 level to surrender most of its intraday’s gains. Positive news about the Omicron variant increased investors’ appetite for riskier assets, as reports suggested that the new strain may be less severe than the previous Delta variant and are less likely to lead to hospitalization. The improved market mood also lend support to the stock market and weighed on the safe-haven greenback.

GBP/USD advanced 0.38% on Monday amid bearish momentum witnessed in the US dollar across the board. But expectations that the UK government may impose new restrictions acted as a headwind for the British pounds. Cable touched a daily high above 1.344 level in the late American session and is now trading at 1.3437 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, EUR/USD advanced to a daily high above 1.133 level despite France reintroducing restrictive Covid-19 measures amid the Omicron spread across the country. The pair was up 0.16% for the day.

Gold advanced and touched a daily top above $1812 during the American session, as the easing fears about the Omicron variant continued to push the precious metal higher. Meanwhile, WTI oil surged almost 3.55% for the day amid thin liquidity trading conditions despite the cancellation of flights on the Christmas weekend.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 (Daily Chart)

The Nasdaq Composite continues to tick up on Monday as markets reopen after the Christmas holiday; markets seem to look for a Santa Claus rally to close out 2021. From the technical perspective, an intraday bull is highly expected to bring the Nasdaq above the key resistance at 16457, which was a tough barrier to overcome since November. The Nasdaq is currently in a strong bullish run as it continues to trade above the ascending trend line and most importantly the W pattern has been formed, which signals a reverse from bearish to bullish. Moreover, the bullish momentum is expected to keep up as the RSI is still far from the overbought territory, suggesting that buyers are still in control. From the Adam Price Reflection’s point of view, the Nasdaq is looking to contest 16764 and head toward around 17200 if the Nasdaq can successfully overcome the resistance level at 16457.

Resistance: 16457, 16764

Support: 16689, 15024, 14486

GBPUSD ( 4- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD is fluctuating near 1.3400, staying in a consolidation phase on Monday. The cautious market mood looks to limit the currency pair’s price action ahead of the New Year. For the technical aspect, the outlook of GBPUSD remains neutral as it continues hovering along with the static resistance at 1.3419 on the 4- hour chart. The currency pair is likely to attract buyers unless it manages to close its price action above the resistance; if GBPUSD can successfully break 1.3419, then the psychological level of 1.3499-1.3500 will be the next hurdle. On the downside, current resistance would be difficult to break as the RSI has reached the overbought condition, signalling the possibility of a pullback.

Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3499, 1.3578

Support: 1.3321, 1.3163

BTCUSD (Daily Chart)

Bitcoin’s bulls seem to revive after the Christmas holiday, edging higher toward 52000 on Monday as the time of writing. The short-term outlook of Bitcoin flips from bearish to bullish as the overnight positive move has brought Bitcoin above the 20 Simple Moving Average. Since the RSI has not yet reached the overbought territory, it gives Bitcoin potential to head toward the next relevant resistance at 55103, followed by the psychological resistance at 58000. On the flip side, if Bitcoin falls below the static support at 46510, then the outlook is likely to turn bearish on the Daily chart.

Resistance: 55103, 58000, 68991

Support: 46510, 39566

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